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Sell Banks

I want to short banks for two main reasons:

  • The flat yield curve cuts their current income
  • They are actually boosting earnings now by bringing back previous loan loss reserves but they will soon have to start adding to reserves.

    These are two huge factors for the banking sector and will increasingly weigh on the banking sector. They basically sum up the two major income streams for banks.

The Four Horsemen of 2023

The chart above shows the yield curve today. The yield curve is simply a chart showing treasury yields at different maturities. So 2 year means the current yield to maturity for the current 2 year note. The curve is a chart of those yields.

The chart looks calm but it is actually filled with violence. It is telling us that:

  • We are going to have a deflationary recession or depression next year.
  • There will be wave after wave of personal, corporate, and even governmental bankruptcies.
  • Violence will break out in the streets of some countries, perhaps even the US.

Governments will be overthrown and be even more vicious than even the current vicious environment. Nationalism will rise. Taxes will rise. Authoritarianism will rise. Disease will rise (monkey pox anyone?). The Four Horsemen will ride in 2023. We are in the calm before the storm.