This man has been an inspiration for me since about 1970 when he shifted from being a psychiatrist to being an arbitrageur in the metals market. I modeled a lot of my trading life after his example!
Henry Jarecki: Jarecki’s law – Commodities – Futures Magazine.
Wow!
It seems like forever since I last traded! Is it like riding a bicycle? You can’t ever forget what to do?
I decided several months ago to take a cruise as a vacation. I booked a ten day cruise through the Panama Canal starting in Acapulco, stopping in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Jamaica. The cruise ended in Ft. Lauderdale.
I figured that taking a cruise would be the only way to truly stop working and get away from the Internet. All that worked! I only had a few minutes of Internet time when we would dock in a new country every other day.
It was quite fascinating to watch my reactions to going cold turkey on Internet access. It wasn’t too bad! Although I must admit that I was getting antsy to get back to work after about seven days.
I had brought lots of work with me but ended up doing none of it! I liked going on vacation. Who knew!
You see, I rarely work! I know that people are always stunned to find me available almost any time of day or night but I love what I do o it is not work. I don’t get tired because I am infinitely fascinated by trading, investing, and business. So I never really need vacations.
I then flew up to New York and had two days of incredible meetings. I’m working on some amazing projects at I’ll let you in on when they get more developed.
Now, back to action! I’m writing this at 37,000 feet flying my way to another great destination. Tomorrow, Saturday, I’m really looking forward to really getting into the markets again.
Hey,I leave for a couple of weeks and the markets go insane! That’s the last time I leave you guys in charge! 
Dateline: Madera Beach, Nicaragua
I’m sitting in a little beach shack. Sipping a Diet Coke and reading a book.
It’s a surf beach. Hard to get to. “Best fish tacos in Nicaragua”. Bob Marley on the stereo.
However, the table next to has an older couple. Gray hair. Checking their email on the free wifi on the beach. Lots of young people surfing and swimming in the ocean. 3-4 foot waves.
Here we are. Old and young enjoying the good life. Low cost of living. Nothing to do. No pressure. Ease of living.
Isn’t that what we all strive for? Ease of living? No pressure?
A long time ago, I committed myself that I wouldn’t compromise my lifestyle anymore. I realized that I had been working hard to maintain a nice lifestyle but that lifestyle was a trap. The sacrifice to maintain that lifestyle was high. I could not escape it. I had to work a certain amount just support a mortgage. And so on and so on.
I determined that I should work toward true freedom. The freedom to do what I want when want and where I want.
This trip is a good reminder of that.
Not good enough Internet to trade. But I could find it here without a problem.
Think about that.
Trading literally from a surf beach in Nicaragua. Living like a king.
This is what it all about.
Dateline: Huatulco, Mexico
I used to work for Jim McKeever back in the early 1970′s. He was one of the original gold bugs and newsletter writers.
Every year, he would take a train trip across the US. He would rent a sleeper room on the train so he could be alone or with other people, whatever he wanted.
He would use the days that it took to cross the country to take a break from all the minutia and trivialities of the day-to-day life to think deeply about the previous year and the coming year. There was no way anyone could disturb him and he couldn’t easily contact others. He was alone with his thoughts.
I decided a couple of months ago to do the same thing except I decided to take a 10 day cruise instead of riding the rails. Back then, riding trains could be a first class experience. No longer. So I decided to take. Cruise through the Panama Canal instead!
I’m currently in a small seaside village at an Internet cafe. I haven’t had any connection to the outside world for the last two days and won’t for another two days. So weird!
But I’m going to use the off time wisely and plot out the coming year. I want to really touch deeply to make sure that I’m only doing things that bring me joy.
So who knows what I’ll come up with!
But, whatever, it will be exciting!
Dateline: Tokyo, Japan
Many people have been talking about the end of the dollar for years. In fact, I really first heard the argument against the dollar about 1971. I read a remarkable book by Harry Browne called How To Profit From the Coming Devaluation. The book was well written and prescient. The US dollar did devalue and a lot of money could be made.
What I most often hear is that the Chinese will dump the dollar thus causing a crash in then value of the dollar. This will not happen. Let me tell you what will happen.
The dollar will slowly decline in value over the coming years and decades. All reserve currencies must decline in value because all reserve currencies must run trade deficits so that more, in this case, dollars are pumped overseas so that other countries can use them to grow their domestic money supply.
Other central banks could use gold but gold costs money to store and insure while US dollars pay interest. (You would here a lot less cries for a new world currency order if the US dollar was paying 7%!)
This decline will exacerbated by a slow movement away from US dollars in trade. A major change here has been the increased convertibility of the Chinese currency. About 7% of China’s trade is now being settled in their own currency. My adopted home of Singapore just announced that they are going to be the second hub for settlements after being appointed that by the Chinese government.
But it is not only the Chinese that will slowly diversify but other main trading blocs. Look for the Europeans and Japanese to also not convert into dollars.
However, this ending of US dollar hegemony will come slowly. Nobody is going to dump their dollars overnight. The US dollar still has some vey strong fundamentals behind it.
It is the deepest and most liquid currency by far. 95% of all currency trades have the code USD in their name!
What is the replacement currency right now?
The euro? It might not exist tomorrow. The yen? That country is slowly going down the tubes. China? The yuan is not convertible and there is no way that the ruling party will allow a bunch of foreign speculators change the value of the currency
The market share of the US dollar as a reserve currency actually went up during the recent financial crisis due to the idea that the US dollar is a safe haven.
Oe of the hidden argument against the US dollar came from my friend Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter. He pointed out that there was a correlation between military power and the strength if the reserve currency. The dominance of the British Pound declined as Great Britain’s power on the global stage declined. Athough the US is the world’s only superpower now, it’s power and influence are declining.
Look for the US dollar to slowly reduce it’s share of global reserves and to slowly lose it’s status as a reserve currency. But there is no need to worry about a midnight savaging of the value of the dollar. There are too many bullish underlying considerations to think of anything more dramatic than a slow sliding into the sunset.
I have been following Peter Brandt for about 20 years. I’ve had the opportunity of interviewing him. I’ve tracked the performance of his newsletter.
Most importantly, I’ve taken some of his ideas and made money trading them.
Peter is a classical chartist. That means that he is a “follower” of such things as head and shoulders, double tops, and so on. He is, in fact, probably the purist chartist in the futures/forex world. Most people have never read the bible of technical charting by Magee/Edwards. They pick up some stuff from new books but never really develop the deep understanding that Peter has.
This book is a very good book if you would like to understand charting. It is a good addition for futures traders to the Magee/Edwards classic.
But more importantly, it is a book which tells the truth about being a pro trader. There is no glossing over the critical issues of risk management and the psychology of trading.
The book gives a good overview of the techniques but the heart of the book is his explanation of his approach to the market, including psychology and risk management, and then his diary of trading for 5 months of trading. This is a excellent insight into the reality of trading.
I really like the lack of hype in the book. He often says that he doesn’t know something. How refreshing!
I highly recommend this book to anyone who wishes to make money in the market particularly if they use any discretion or charting or wants to learn about charting.
I travel around the world and need to keep track of expenses for tax reporting. I have several problems. One is that I have is that my receipts come in different currencies. The second is that I hate to fill out expense reports. It is one of those things that just keeps slipping into tomorrow’s To Do list and never gets done.
Shoeboxed is the solution to both of these problems!
I now stuff my receipts into envelopes as I travel. Each envelope is one currency. This is where Shoeboxed comes in.
I send the envelopes to Shoeboxed in their postage paid envelopes. They then scan the receipts and create an expense report automatically!
I send only one currency in each envelope so each expense report is in just one currency and then I just do one currency conversion at the bottom of the report. Easy!
Everything is accessible online which is great and you can connect with your accountant or tax preparer.
You can have them destroy the receipts (The IRS accepts the scanned images.) or have them mail them back to you. Cool.
Shoeboxed is a great tool for my lifestyle. I highly recommend it!
