Dead in the Water

I'm talking about the economy.

The latest news is that retail sales are lower AND manufacturing output is lower. A double whammy on the economy. Add in a down tick in consumer confidence and it is hard to see how there is going to be a resurgence any time soon.

We're going to see more and more stories about the fiscal cliff coming on Jan 1. Yes, some of it will be solved before Jan 1 but that will be done by the lame duck Congress AFTER the election! So it won't be solved until just weeks or days before the cliff looms.

Even if it is solved, it will still be bad for the economy because it is almost impossible that they will eliminate the whole problem.

I've been very clear that the economy will not improve for many more months, perhaps not until late 2013 at the earliest. I expect that the reduced fiscal cliff (fiscal curb?) will still reduce the economic growth in early 2013 enough to push the economy to essentially zero growth.

The best trade to take advantage of this is to buy bonds even though they are absurdly high!

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