Is This The Bottom In Oil?

“The cure for low prices is low prices.” So says an old trading proverb.

Low prices cause demand to increase and supply to be choked off.

I’ve been very bearish on oil for a long time. But should I change my opinion?

One of the keys to knowing when to buy again is demand.

Ace oil analyst Kent Moors says:

“The demand for oil is growing worldwide, with the global growth rate higher than at any point since 2010. According to oil demand statistics collected by the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI), oil demand rose 3.3% in the first half of 2015, compared to the same period in 2014.

This data comes from 59 countries that together account for about 80% of the world’s oil consumption and suggests that in 2015 demand will increase by an average of 1.65 million barrels per day. This fits in line with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimate that global oil consumption this year will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day.

The lion’s share of the increase belongs to China, which reported a petroleum consumption growth of 1.3 million barrels per day, a more than 13% lift.”

So this factor may be in play.

What about supply? Supply is still increasing. So that is not going to help the bull case.

Nonetheless, I’m seeing some strength in one of my Early Warning Indicators that the bottom is in place for oil.

I’ll tell you about it and give you some specific trade ideas tomorrow.

See you then!

Good Trading!

Courtney

P.S. Want to make a lot of money trading oil? I’ve just released a new course called How to Crush the Futures and Forex Markets. It’s all online so no travel expenses and you can get going right away. Every Monday for five weeks, I deliver to you a ton of great education. Then, on Wednesday night, we get together for a live coaching call on the Internet. Click here for more information.  It starts on Monday! You can register by clicking here.

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How I Managed a #1 Mutual Fund!

I used to be the Chief Investment Manager of a mutual fund company. I also managed a mutual fund ranked #1 from Morningstar over a five year period.

I’ve put together a special video presentation to give you some of the key techniques and ideas I used to create that amazing track record!

Just click here now to watch it!

I think you will learn a lot from it and hopefully use the info to create massive wealth in your life!

It’s absolutely free so click here now!

Thanks!

Best,

Courtney Smith

P.S. I don’t know how long I’ll leave the video up so watch it here now!

 

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The Debt Bomb Is Already Exploding

Everybody knows that federal debt has exploded. We are now at $18 trillion! Everybody bemoans the fact that it will be difficult to payback and that our kids have a massive burden.

I want to highlight a concern that is never mentioned.

For years, I pooh-poohed the debt gloom and doomers because the amount of debt was small compared to the size of the economy.

Like a family, you can have a small amount of debt to help you buy a house or car if the amount of debt is small compared to your income or your assets. That was the situation with the US for decades.

But I fear that we have passed that point now.

Take a look at the second chart. This shows the interest payments that the Federal government pays. You can see that the Federal government is currently paying about $450 billion per year in interest payments. And this is with interest rates at their lowest level in history!

What happens if interest rates go back to normal levels? The average of short term interest rates over the last 20 years is about 5% and it is effectively zero right now. Long term interest rates are below 3% when the long term average is closer to 6%. So let’s assume that a return to normal would boost interest payments to $1 trillion per year!

That means that a full one quarter of all Federal government expenditures will be interest payments! That is money that could go to more productive uses!

But here is the real problem. We are now entering the stage where the interest payments are compounding. In other words, we are paying interest on the interest!

This means that interest payments will become a larger and larger portion of the federal budget. It has reached a point that is truly disastrous. The compounding of interest will keep growing. It will start to grow at an exponential rate, with a sharp acceleration when interest rates start to rise.

The Fed has been buying all the debt of the US Treasury since the last recession thus enabling the massive increase in debt. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero, thus enabling the massive increase in debt.

One good thing is that the budget deficit is decreasing though still massive.

But here is what is going to happen.

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The debt will continue to grow by about a half trillion dollars a year. This means that interest payments will continue to rise with an accelerating pace. At the same time, interest rates will rise very slowly but every increase will increase the rate of increase of federal interest payments.

Soon, interest payments will be $1 trillion per year then $2 trillion and so on.

It won’t be many years before interest payment will be 1/4, 1/2, and eventually all the federal budget. Of course, it can’t be the whole budget but it will be squeezing all other expenditures.

Clearly this is not sustainable.

So how will this all end?

I look for the Fed to keep interest rates lower longer than anyone else. They know what I’m talking about here and will not want to increase the interest burden on the federal government.

In addition, I look for the Fed to double down on an effort to boost inflation. The only way to really decrease the interest burden is to make sure that inflation is higher that interest rates. That is called negative interest rates and negative interest rates are great for borrowers because the value of the debt goes down.

So look for much higher inflation down the road.

Eventually, we will see lower bond prices and will actually see one of the greatest bear markets in history.

At first, this will boost the stock market but eventually cut the legs out from under it.

Good trading,

Courtney

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Why You Should Care What A Company Does

Generally speaking, I don’t care what a company does for a living. I don’t care if they are in healthcare, utilities, or technology.

I really like to find companies that are making massive money and have weak competition. I like companies that are growing rapidly. I like companies that are basically in their own universe because they have a monopoly or near monopoly. 

Which means that I don’t care what the company does but how well they do it.

I teach a course called Stock Success School where I teach how to find what I call Best of the Best Stocks. I teach my special criteria to find these stocks.

But I never actually have my students see what the company does. I want them to not get emotionally involved in the stock because that can cloud their opinion.

But there is one time that I recommend you look at the company’s business.

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Courtney Smith managed the number one growth mutual fund in the US. He wrote the number stock picking newsletter. He was voted the number one bond and gold market time in the country.
Wouldn’t you love to learn the techniques he used to create this amazing track record?
On October 24-25th, in Las Vegas, Courtney Smith will be teaching a live two day seminar that will reveal the four critical keys to outstanding stock investment profits. They include:
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  2. How to control risk so the risk doesn’t control you
  3. How to pick stocks poised for massive profits
  4. How to time the buys and sells for maximum profits with the least risk

For a modest investment you can learn amazing techniques from a trading master. 

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I believe in socially responsible investing. This means that I want to make sure that the company isn’t in a business that I find immoral.
I recommend you do the same.
Here are some common concerns that you may share:
  1. Polluters
  2. Selling cigarettes
  3. Selling guns
You may have some religious objections against some companies. 
I believe it is important to vote our conscience with our dollars. We should take our money away from those companies that are evil and invest in companies that are promoting a better world.

Yes, it is probably just a few dollars but collectively it can be a large amount of money. But, even if it is a small amount of money, it is important for us to take a stand for our morality. It sends a message to the company and to the market. More importantly, it aligns our financial decisions with our internal conscience. We need to always keep ourselves in integrity with our beliefs.

Thanks!

Good trading,

Courtney

 

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Why Natural Gas Prices Will Stay Low For Years

It seems like every trader I know points to natural gas and wants to buy it. After all, it is super cheap compared to just a few years ago!

The chart shows a high of almost $18 compared to the current $3. This massive bear market occurred because of the dramatic explosion of new natgas supplies. We got a rally back up to $6.50 in early 2014 but the price was smacked back down to under $3.

I’m not interested in trading natgas at all. It’s boring and there is almost no likelihood of a major bull or  bear market. Here’s why.

Let me let ace energy analyst Kent Moors (http://oilandenergyinvestor.com) explain:

“Natural gas inventory at the end of July came in 23% higher year-on-year (after two months of declines). That figure is estimated to reach 3.867 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the end of October (and the end of the summer refill season) – 69 billion cubic feet (bcf) above the five-year average and the second highest on record.

2015 demand should end up at 76.5 bcf per day (bcf/d), or 27.9 tcf for the entire year. This is up 4.08% from 2014.

Gas marketed production is expected to grow by an annual rate of 5.4% in 2015, to 78.72 bcf/d, and to rise 2.3% in 2016, to 80.52 bcf/d. That puts it at an estimated total of 28.7 tcf for 2015.”
 
OK, that’s a lot of numbers. Let me refine it for you.
 
We’re going to produce way more natgas that we will consume for years.
 
Down the road, the increased demand for natgas for things like power generation will finally cause a major bull market. But we are years away from that. 
 
In the meantime, stand aside. I’ll keep you posted when the time comes to play the natural gas market.
 
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Thanks!
Good trading,
Courtney
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Should You Stink Bid It?

I read a lot of newsletters. Probably too many.

One tactic used by some of them is called a lowball or stink bid.

Should you use stink bids?

I’ve put together a short video about what they are, how to use them, and whether or not

you should use them.

Click here to view now!

Thanks!

Good trading,

Courtney

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Was Today The Bottom of the Stock Market Crash?

Yesterday, I did a live webinar on the current stock market crash (click here to watch the free replay). I predicted that the market would rally today. But is this the bottom?

No. We have more to go on the downside.

Today’s price action was great at the beginning of the day but faded very badly later in the day.

I bought more puts on SDS which is a double inverse ETF on the S&P 500. I’ll look again closely on the open and may take profits then.

China lowered interest rates and dropped their reserve requirements and that caused a strong rebound in the US stock market on the open.

As a trading principle, the news is not important. What is important is the market’s reaction to the news.

The initial reaction was bullish, but the late reaction was bearish. In other words, the market ended up acting bearishly to bullish news.

That is very bearish.

So I look for the bear market to continue.

I’ll continue to update you daily as we go through this situation.

But I suggest that you subscribe to my new Market Forecast Video Newsletter to keep up with all the ways to profit from this market. You can subscribe and get more info by clicking here!

You owe it to yourself to subscribe right now!

Thanks!

Good trading,

Courtney

P.S. The weekly Market Forecast video newsletter is on special right now if you subscribe for a full year! Click here now!

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Is This The Beginning of the Stock Market Crash?

The Dow dropped over 2% today. Is this the beginning of the big crash that so many are predicting? Is this the beginning of a major bear market? 

I don’t think so.

First, there is no new news that would cause it.
 
Second, the market is overvalued but not by much.
 
Third, there has never been a bear market that wasn’t preceded by the yield curve going negative first.
 
Fourth, Seasonally, we don’t get bear markets starting in August.
 
Fifth, the Nasdaq is still making higher highs and higher lows.
 
Having said all that, I am looking for a small correction this year to start in September/October and cause the market to drop 3-9%. 
 
I gave an exhaustive explanation in a paid for webinar I did a month ago. You can buy the webinar to get a complete analysis of the next year by clicking here!)
 
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Wouldn’t you love to learn the techniques he used to create this amazing track record?
 
On October 24-25, in Las Vegas, Courtney Smith will be teaching a live two day seminar that will reveal the four critical keys to outstanding stock investment profits. They include:
 
  1. How to create a psychology that will allow you to accept massive profits
  2. How to control risk so the risk doesn’t control you
  3. How to pick stocks poised for massive profits
  4. How to time the buys and sells for maximum profits with the least risk
For a modest investment you can learn amazing techniques from a trading master. 
 
Click here now for more information and to register!
 
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So what should we do now to profit from this drop?
 
I’m no fool. I always think I could be wrong so I’m going to buy some protection tomorrow morning for my account. I’m going to buy the DOG $25 calls for hopefully under 50 cents. I’ll hedge half my portfolio.
 
But I’m also going to be buying a bunch of stocks.
 
I’m not going to buy the dip like most people do. I’ll wait until the market has bottomed and then buy when the stocks start to rally.
 
Thanks!
 
Good trading,
 
Courtney
 
P.S. One technique I’ll be using a lot over the next week is our famous Boing Boing. I’ll be teaching it at the Stock Success School mentioned in the ad above. You should look into attending!
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The Fed Is On Hold and How You Can Profit From It

The Fed released their minutes from their last meeting and the consensus of commentators is that there is still a chance they will raise rates in September but that now December is a more likely time for them to raise it.

I have been saying for over a year that they would not raise rates this year. Here’s why:

  1. Inflation is low and going lower. The Fed has a target of 2.0% and the core rate that they watch is only 1.2% and declining.
  2. The big argument for raising interest rates is that the unemployment rate is in the 5’s and declining slowly. Jobs are being created at about a 200,000 job monthly rate. But Fed head Yellen knows that there are fewer people working than at any time in the last 30 years. So she views that as a massive overlay of under utilized labor and will want to get those people back in the economy.
  3. She sees that the economy is only bumping along but that the growth is concentrated in the business sector not the employee part of the economy. She is a left leaning labor economist by training and inclination so will want to get more money in the hands of the public not businesses.
  4. Finally, we have an election coming up next year and Fed will often do the Administration’s bidding and keep interest rates low.

Even if the Fed raises interest rates, it will only be by a smidgeon.

Now, how can we make money from it?

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Here are some of the effects of keeping interest rates lower than expected:

  1. The stock market will rocket in December if the Fed doesn’t raise rates before then.
  2. The US dollar will stay in a sideways pattern. The underlying fundamentals are generally bullish on the USD but keeping rates low will knock out one of the major bullish features of the dollar.
  3. Gold will be strengthened on the back of the weaker dollar.
  4. Emerging markets will do better because money will not be sucked out of their economy and into the US.

Thanks!

Good trading,

Courtney

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Why The Fed Will Not Raise Interest Rates This Year

Over a year ago, I stated that the Fed would not raise interest rates in 2015. Now, the market is almost agreeing with me. There are only two Fed meetings before the end of the year, one in September and one in December.

The market is betting that the Fed will raise rates this year.

I agree that there is a good chance they will raise in December but I think recent facts have increased the chances that the Fed will wait til next year.

All of the reasons that the Fed has given for the last 8 years are still largely in play except that the unemployment rate has dropped.

But a new factor has come into play that will likely keep the Fed from raising rates this year.

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Learn To Trade Stocks The Courtney Smith Way! For Only $97!!!!
 
Courtney Smith managed the number one growth mutual fund in the US. He wrote the number stock picking newsletter. He was voted the number one bond and gold market time in the country.
Wouldn’t you love to learn the techniques he used to create this amazing track record?
On October 24-25, in Las Vegas, Courtney Smith will be teaching a live two day seminar that will reveal the four critical keys to outstanding stock investment profits. They include:
  1. How to create a psychology that will allow you to accept massive profits
  2. How to control risk so the risk doesn’t control you
  3. How to pick stocks poised for massive profits
  4. How to time the buys and sells for maximum profits with the least risk
For a modest investment you can learn amazing techniques from a trading master. 

But you have to click here now to register!

Click here now for more information and to register!

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China has now dropped the value of their currency by about 5% in the last several days. Here’s what that means.

All China goods are now 5% cheaper than they were last week! China is a huge supplier of goods to the US and this means that inflation will drop. 

The price of oil is plunging again as predicted. I’m looking for oil to drop into the $30’s. My downside objective is the low 30’s and that will cause inflation to drop even more by the end of the year.

The Fed really wants to see 2% inflation but these two new factors will cause inflation to turn into deflation. 

So look for the Fed to keep interest rates stable. 

I’m currently long TLT and look for it to continue to rally. 

Thanks!

Good trading!

 Courtney

P.S. Please check out the insane Early Bird Special on our Stock Success School live seminar. Click here for info.

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The forex market is the hottest market around. Big leverage means you have the opportunity to make a lot of money quickly. But that same leverage can cost you a bundle if you don’t learn to trade forex correctly. Futures and Forex Intensive is the key course to teach you techniques that will help you profit from this explosive market place. 

The course is designed by master trader Courtney Smith and taught by ace trader Jade Goodhue. This exciting live seminar is coming up on September 12-13 in Wealthbuilder’s classroom in Las Vegas.

Click here now for more information and to register!

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