TradeSmith Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 6/27/16

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TradeSmith: Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 6/20/16

Courtney Smith here with TradeSmith the video weekly newsletter and for all 0:13 you fully paid-up members I’ve got a ton of new trades here this week for you 0:17 freebies got some new analysis as well let’s dive right into it and 0:21 particularly dive right into this disclaimer very important you understand 0:26 this 0:27 all right um so far the markets behaving exactly as predicted something a little 0:35 bit disturbing and let’s just back up we’re looking at a rectangle 0:40 formation here that’s pretty clear 0:42 and then I highlighted in a redbox something 0:47 and here we can see the on balance volume has made a new low 0:53 but the price did not now that’s a divergence and it would suggest that we 0:59 are going to move higher maybe back up to the old highs that we made around 1:03 2,200 on the S&P the only thing that bothers me is down in the lower right 1:08 hand corner that little down day that little inside day was on heavy volume so 1:12 whichever way we break out of Friday’s range is going to be a pretty clear-cut 1:17 indicator as to where the markets going near term but right now i’m gonna go a 1:23 little bit more bullish my little bearish call is over 1:26 look for a little bit of a bullish price action here early in the week but I 1:31 think we’re still going to probably head down to 20 30 1:34 dow jones weaker I’m sorry yeah dow jones weaker 1:38 here’s the nasdaq nasdaq has been the strongest but of course we had that big 1:43 divergence that I talked about and we sold off perfectly 1:46 as predicted here you can see the little down day on friday but it was on very 1:52 very heavy volume I don’t really like that price action at all 1:55 seasonality is still remains in a buy signal now what that means is that when 2:01 we’re on a buy signal we want to be taking extra large position 2:07 to the upside so so far that’s worked out really well 2:11 I haven’t had any monster winners lately but all of our winners have been bigger 2:17 than normal size and that adds up over over time 2:22 seasonal patterns we went over this in a lot of detail last week but still you 2:28 know kind of choppy sloppy through the summer as we normally get and then maybe 2:34 around august will start to see another move to two new all-time highs but we 2:38 got probably a month of really not really much action at all 2:42 yield curve this is going to be something that’s going to stop the 2:46 market from moving higher you can see where at where we were a year ago and 2:51 the yield curve has been collapsing 2:54 ever since and that doesn’t mean we’re going to a bear market but it does mean 2:58 that it’s going to be difficult for the stock market to gain much traction on 3:01 the upside 3:02 so don’t look for any thirty percent year or twenty percent year 3:06 I don’t even think we’re going to get a ten percent year this year probably 3:10 somewhere between zero and 10 asset allocation we talked about the breaking 3:15 of the little head and shoulders formation 3:18 I’m like I think the only person in the world that does technical analysis on 3:22 fundamental analysis but this is going to cause money to continue to flow out 3:27 of the bond market and I’m sorry into the bond market and out of the stock 3:32 market 3:33 so over the near term don’t look for any big moves up maybe a few days up as I 3:38 mentioned at the top of the broadcast but nonetheless asset allocation is 3:42 going to weigh on this market as well risk appetite 3:47 no big story here global shares 3:50 we had the big failure top a couple of weeks ago the markets now dropped below 3:55 support we’re in a bear market now lower lows and lower highs very clear but we 4:00 had a little snap back rally on ideas that 4:04 well what we saw was is at the polls which had shifted in favor of great 4:09 britain leaving the EU 4:11 shifted back and now we’re starting to see that the remain crowd is out pulling 4:21 the leave crowd 4:22 now admittedly these poles are some of the most well we just don’t know 4:29 in other words they’re not very reliable polls so we’re going to have to look for 4:33 big surprises on june twenty third when the referendum kicks in so that’s only 4:37 five days from now 4:39 that’s going to keep things on edge bonds continue to move higher 4:46 except on friday but still the bull market remains we’ve shown you the asset 4:50 allocation also the rally is occurring on steadily increasing volume look down at 4:55 the bottom of the chart you’ll see that and that’s confirming the bull market 5:00 that we’ve got going here so look for bonds to move higher but I just I mean 5:05 really 5:06 of course i said this before how far much how high a much higher can they get 5:10 this is the highest prices in human history 5:15 well okay in American history bond key factors are generally bullish 5:21 I’m sorry generally suggesting lower interest rates with gold and crb 5:27 suggesting higher interest rates but the 10-year treasury in Germany is the most 5:34 important factor dominating the bond market right now and it’s suggesting we 5:38 are going to continue to see this bull market in the bonds the yield curve 5:44 oh my God look at this the top line 5:47 the green line that’s that’s the the yield over the last couple or three 5:52 years back to 2013 5:54 that’s the US dollar up at the top yielding about one-point-six percent 5:58 under that is the UK at about 1.2 percent the blue line is the german 6:06 10-year yield and it’s basically a zero it actually ended up a point 0 0 for no 6:11 point oh four percent negative and then the orange line at the bottom is is a 6:17 japan 6:18 so all of the major currencies all major countries are putting downside pressure 6:23 on us interest rates as well so that’s this picture really tells the story 6:29 dollar look for a break out here we’re in a pennant formation should see a 6:34 break out here this coming week 6:35 I don’t really have a position on my sense is that we should move higher but 6:40 the fundamentals are very choppy I mean we’re trading at the same price we were 6:45 back in March so clearly there’s no major trend here right now 6:49 gold we got up to the top of this rectangle formation 6:54 I’m bullish I think we’re going to break out of the top 6:58 here’s why all of our indicators are key short-term indicators for gold are 7:02 bullish and so look for the market to break above those highs we broke above 7:08 them on thursday but then we collapse back down now look for the real breakout 7:12 to occur 7:13 and if that happens you should add to your gold positions or initiate your 7:18 goal position but that’s your signal to get more gold 7:23 if you’ve been following our recommendations you know we’ve been a 7:25 bit bullish all right 7:27 oil hm I’m still scratching my head here 7:31 quite frankly markets in a clear bull market except wait a second 7:37 we kind of made a lower lows on thursday we rebounded sharply on friday 7:43 the other thing is that suggests bullishness is that the down move we had 7:49 over the previous week was accompanied by falling volume which suggests that 7:54 the decline was not being supported by volume and so Friday’s price action is 8:00 probably the real thing to look at so look for the market to rebound up to the 8:04 $52 level 52 dollar level 8:10 all right everybody listen love having you on here freebies all of our new 8:15 we’ve got a great new podcast listeners love having you guys it’s fantastic 8:20 hopefully you’re getting some value here love to hand by the way you can 8:25 subscribe and get specific trade recommendations by going to that link up 8:30 at the top 8:31 it’s a peanut less than a starbucks coffee every day and I think you can 8:35 probably make at least forty seven dollars off of these recommendations 8:39 the specific recommendations the actionable advice 8:43 that’s in the paid for version anyway listen really appreciate having you all here 8:47 fully paid-up members hang in there 8:49 I’ll be back with you in just a second

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TradeSmith: Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 06/13/16

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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 06/06/16


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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 05/30/16


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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 05/23/16


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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 05/16/16


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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 05/09/16


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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 05/02/16



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TradeSmith: Weekly Market Forecast with Courtney Smith 04/25/16


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